Reflecting this morning on the momentous task ahead for the Conservative Party, I think it is vital to remember the two following quotes from the great economist Milton Friedman:

‘Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government.’

and

‘I am in favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it's possible.’

We are all feeling the pinch of the global recession. America is affected. Britain is affected. The whole of Europe is affected. The issue for us, however, is that we belong to the European Union and are one of the few select countries to not use the euro as our currency. This, while in itself not an issue, has become one since there are murmurings about how we would have not been as badly affected if we had adopted the euro, and now some are even advocating we adopt the euro in this time of financial crisis.

Now, while I agree the recession is bad, and it’s affecting us all in multiple ways, and I agree we need radical measures, I do think swapping the pound for the euro would be a bad move now. Indeed, we must not forget why we actually rejected the euro in the first place.

Britain, due to retaining control of the pound, is in a unique position within the EU in that the Bank of England sets interest rates, and not the European Central Bank. The ECB decides interest rates based on the whole of the euro area, and tries to find a compromise which benefits no country yet isn’t a detriment to any either. In addition, Britain is unique with its housing market such that any ECB determined rate would indeed be to the detriment of our economy. Indeed, the ECB is trying to find a one-size-fits-all interest rate, which unfortunately simply doesn’t exist.

If Britain were to adopt the euro, we would lose control of our interest rates. Indeed, we would lose all and any overview in monetary policy.

Additionally, Britain initially rejected the idea of the euro due to the lack of clarity as to whether or not it was good for business. While being good for tourists and ‘easy’, and this ‘ease of use’ also applies to businesses, it at the time wasn’t clear how valuable it would be to the UK due to the more international role of trade.

Indeed, looking again today, the euro isn’t any better for business than the retaining of the pound would be. If anything, retaining the pound means better trade with important partners: the US, Canada, and Australia.

It’s easy to say that having the euro would make us more adaptive to the financial recession. The reality is that this isn’t the case. It would, if anything, make us worse off in this regard. In addition, with all the reasons for us initially rejecting the euro remaining, there is no reason why we should open up this old can of worms – it is imperative we keep the pound.

To date Brown has kept very quiet about when he will call the next general election. All we know is that it must be held sometime before June 2010. The current situation, however, pinpoints exactly when the next general election will be held.

Labour realise that for the most part they have lost. All current polls indicate a Conservative majority, though of course a hung-parliament could very well be on the table. Irrespective, the people have lost respect for the current government and want Brown out. Everyone within Labour realise this, from MPs to grassroots, and even Brown himself realises the damage that has been caused.

What is Brown’s response, then? To hold back until the final moment for when an election can be called. The aim? To reduce the damage caused by the current events and any future possible events. Some predicted that Brown will hold a general election on the same day as the European Elections, though my view is that this is now unfeasible if Labour want any fighting chance.

Personally, I’d love it for Labour to hold an election as soon as possible. The reality, though, is that we’ll see one in May 2010 when – as Brown hopes – most of this will have blown over and be forgotten.

The Labour deputy leader, Harriet Harman, has said that the BNP pose a real threat in the upcoming European Elections. Indeed, in many areas Labour have changed their usual act and are now focusing solely on the ‘threat of the BNP’.

The important point here is that Labour realise they have lost. Especially so with the current debacle going on regarding Damian McBride and his atrocious smear campaign (which, like everything Labour does, failed spectacularly). The fact they’re not even focusing on the Conservative Party or Liberal Democrats anymore just shows how badly they feel they will do come June 2009.

In the 2004 European Election they faired badly with only 22.6pc of the vote. The BNP, on the other hand, achieved only 4.9pc of the vote. It’s clear Labour are in the mess if they’re focusing on a political party which achieved not even 5pc of the vote in the last election.

This, while good news for the Conservative Party, shouldn’t mean complacency. The Conservatives still need to talk more about Europe, especially with the upcoming election, and also get out there and win the message. The major threat for the Conservatives is UKIP, and with increased campaigning and publicity on their part, the Conservative Party could feel the pinch in June unless they make themselves heard.

In the past nine months, Cameron has made one speech on health and education, whereas he has made no less than 18 on the economy. It is clear why he wishes to shift focus onto the economy, as this is where the Tory party is leading, and also it is something which is directly affecting everyone in the country in a negative way.

The problem with this, however, is that he is failing to point out Labour’s other failures which are just as important and detrimental to the future of this country. In education, as I reported recently, 25pc of primary school children are floundering and there is a black hole worth millions. In health, some 30 000 children have to have their teeth pulled due to the poor quality of NHS dentists or even the lack of NHS dentists in certain areas. In general party politics, Labour is continuously at the forefront for sleaze and misadministration and incompetence.

Above I’ve given three precise examples. There are, however, many more if one wishes to read the papers or do a bit of research. Each and every day there are stories about how Labour is failing Britain today and for future generations. It is true, they are doing so in regards to the economy as well, however, this shouldn’t be the sole point of attack.

The Conservative Party needs to be more vehement in their attacks on Labour and Brown, and also more broad and cover a variety of briefs on a regular basis than focus on one or two areas. Repeating Bill Clinton’s “It's the economy, stupid” mantra won’t work.

The BBC reports on how Brown is now intending for every person to have undertaken 50 hours of community action by the time they are 19 years of age. This, Brown believes, will help alleviate anti-social behaviour issues in Britain and teach young Britons about giving back to the community; he feels it will help them realise their contribution to society and what is expected of them.

The issue is that it is already far too late for most, and indeed, this is nothing more than a smokescreen; Brown has failed local communities and the British youth, and now we’re left in a situation where so many young Britons resemble feral animals. Having these people aid in their local community would cause more problems to the local community and vulnerable people than it would benefit them.

What is needed is a proper action plan to deter anti-social behaviour (and ASBOs aren’t the answer). People respond to incentives, and a clear incentive to stop anti-social behaviour is correct punishment in the form of correctional facilities. Drastic? Possibly. The reality, however, is that we’ve past the point of no return and now people are scared to walk down a street or go to their local grocery store.

In addition, we have to look at ways to reverse the growing number of feral youths. Is it education? No doubt, this will play a part. Indeed, incentives are also necessary. However, one more vital piece of the puzzle is dealing with parents and ensuring they have proper control over their children and ensuring they play their role correctly in moulding their children in a correct manner for society.

If Brown wants to improve the future generations of Britain, then the above is what must be done, and not some useless national service or community-work scheme which will help no one.

Despite being the mantra of Tony Blair, and backed by Gordon Brown, it would seem that 12 years onwards Labour hasn’t a clue what’s going on in our schools. It would seem that despite their increases in taxes to ‘support education’, standards are falling, not being raised.

The Times has an article on how 25pc of students across the UK in primary schools are failing to grasp the basics of literacy and numeracy. So in short, the current Labour government doesn’t have a grasp on what’s going on in our schools.

It’s time to realise that new chic gimmicks and pricey options aren’t the way forward to learning the basics. The way forward is to put back into the system rigour and traditional methods which are understood by everyone, logical, and actually work.

Some things simply need to be learnt by rote, such as spelling and times tables. Enough of these useless methods such as ‘chunking’ or ‘the bus stop’, just learn good old fashioned long-multiplication and long-division. Forget about phonics, and focus on traditional methods which actually work.

So many of these new teaching methods are fads which have no impact on learning and exist solely to create a stir, to the detriment of the education of those involved.

In France they have a national motto of ‘Liberty, Equality, Fraternity’. This motto encompasses the whole way of life in France, and everything related to politics there. It is a guiding star, if anything.

In Britain, we need something akin. Indeed, the Conservative Party needs something akin to focus policy. Obviously we’re not going to copy the French motto, as not only would that be theft, but of course, lest we forget that our views on a variety of issues are greatly different.

I propose: Freedom. Enterprise. Choice.

Of the above three words, Margaret Thatcher said: For responsible individuals, guaranteed by the rule of law administered by and independent judiciary and minimal state activity; Fostered by a low tax, low inflation economy - with currency exchange rates determined by the free market; For individuals must be maximised - even if the state accepts responsibility for provision of a safety net.

In essence, the above typifies the Conservative Party in every form possible. It’s about ensuring freedom and liberty, ensuring that people are free from government interference and regulation, allowing us to get on with our lives and making the best possible of what we have; it’s about fostering a sense of community and business spirit within the people, ensuring that we’re all working together and working for our own and our community’s best interests; it’s about ensuring that choice is maximised and that all people in Britain are given the freedom to choose what they want to do, purchase, and have a variety of choice within that freedom.

It is important that David Cameron realises the mess that Labour has left Britain in, and that finances are now worse than ever, and while ‘sharing the proceeds of growth’ may sound trendy, it is far from the most important thing for the average Briton. Indeed, they would rather focus on the above three words to lead Conservative policy in the right direction.

This would ensure lower taxes – giving people the choice to spend their money how they choose; this would ensure less regulation and interference in education and health care – letting doctors, nurses, and teachers get on with their jobs and letting them make the right decisions for their patients/students; this would mean deregulation and increased globalisation to help the poor labourers in foreign markets and give more choice to Britons here for consumption of goods and services.

The Conservative Party has a strong chance of winning the next general election, the best chance since the loss in 1997. The current Shadow Cabinet is one of the strongest (possibly second only to that of Michael Howard) since the loss in 1997. Now, if ever, it is more important for Cameron to realise that focus in policy is vital for victory. If we lack this, we lack victory, leading to Labour for another four miserable years.

I think irrespective of political party or political affiliation, we can all extend our deepest sorrow for David Cameron and his family at this time of hardship. It is difficult for any person or family to lose a loved one, though especially difficult when said loved one is one’s own child.

All our thoughts are with the Cameron family at this moment.

Merry Christmas

According to The Times, Cameron has called for a snap general election to be had.

What I wonder is whether we can put up with this for another 18 months? Whenever people have had a chance to speak about this Government, whether at the local elections, whether in Crewe, whether in Henley, whether in the London mayor elections and now in Glasgow, they have said 'Look, we think you're failing and we want change'.

The above is Cameron’s reasoning. While true what he says, the reality is an election isn’t coming any time soon. Brown and the Labour Party, unfortunately, realise that calling an election now would mean political suicide. Though that’s what we want, they obviously don’t, and so will do all to prevent such happening.

The next election will be fought between Brown and Cameron; this is without doubt despite rumours to the contrary. Brown won’t give up his chance to fight a general election of his own. The date as to when it will happen? As late as possible. Brown will delay any election as much as he can to try and salvage what 'popularity' he has left.

The outcome? I predict something along the lines of that seen in 1997, the other way round though, obviously.

The news is everywhere that Labour lost the Glasgow East by-election. That they lost badly (possibly an understatement, even). The problem, however, is for some to misunderstand this by-election and look at it as if the SNP did well on their own merit (as some news agencies, such as the BBC, have done).

The results of this by-election have nothing to reflect on the SNP. They do reflect, however, on the other three parties: Labour, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat. Most expected Labour to lose, and lose they did, though few suspected the support to go anywhere but the SNP, which leaves the question, why aren’t voters in Glasgow East ready to support the Liberal Democrats, or (more importantly) the Conservatives?

For all the talk about the Conservative Party improving throughout Britain, and Cameron bringing the much needed change, it is somewhat questionable as to why we did so badly and received only 1 639 votes. If we were doing as well as some would have us believe – and Labour as badly – then surely we should have pushed them into third place?

While this election result highlights how badly Labour is currently doing, it also highlights how much further the Conservative Party has to go in Scotland before it can become a winning force. The reality is that while support in England may have surged, in Scotland it has pretty much flatlined.

According to BBC News, Cameron and Empey have been in discussions over tightening relations between the Conservative Party and the UUP, in essence having an alliance whereby UUP MPs take the Conservative whip and hold briefs in a Conservative government. The aim, according to Cameron, is to ensure that politics in Northern Ireland is like that of the rest of the UK.

It’s a noble aim, and indeed the outcome is one I agree with, though I fear simply having an alliance with the UUP and integrating UUP MPs is the wrong way to go about it. Indeed, if we want politics to be 'the same' across all of the UK, the proposals should go further into actually recommending a merger between the Conservative Party and the UUP, or for the Conservative Party to put more effort into identifying itself in Northern Ireland.

As it stands, the Conservative Party is very much a non-entity in NI. Indeed, so is the UUP, though less so. The important factor, however, is that general political view – if we remove the nationalist/unionist sentiment – is very much inline with that of the Conservative Party. If the UUP were to merge into the Conservative Party, we would see a stronger force for conservatism in NI and possibly even a rejuvenation of politics.

The Conservative Party shouldn’t work with the UUP along the lines of the CDU/CSU in Germany. That’s the wrong way to go. Instead, merge the UUP into the Conservative Party to have a united political force throughout the UK.

For all of you who for some reason or other want Obama to win the Presidential election, I’d just like to refer you to The Real Barack Obama.

There is a very good piece by Gerald Warner in Telegraph Blogs on why it is foolish that nearly a third of Tory MPs support Obama for the presidency.

The revelation that 28 out of 91 Tory MPs responding to a survey want Barack Obama to win the US presidency is alarming testimony to the political illiteracy of the contemporary Conservative Party. Obama's voting record earned him the title of most liberal US senator in 2007, a dubious honour held by John Kerry in 2003.

I noticed the following video while over at GavPolitics:

I think we are all more than aware of how last year the official auditors refused to sign off on the EU’s financial accounts for the 13th year in a row. Some may have even been forgiven for thinking there may be some changes. The reality, however, is very different.

This video depicts not only the corruption and waste that exists within the EU, but also how hidden everything is kept. We see from the video (and the same information is available on the European Parliament’s website if you’re determined enough to find it) that on average an MEP 'earns' €15 000 per calendar month. At a time when we are scrutinising MP salaries and expenses, surely we should also focus on our beloved MEPs?

The reality is that Cameron keeps very quiet about Europe because he doesn’t want it to divide us as it has so in the past. The problem, however, is that Europe is a dividing issue for Conservatives because it needs to be. The Conservative Party has a running campaign 'Follow the Money' which aims to expose national government corruption and waste. How then is it possible for us to ignore the problem that is the EU?

Cameron has spoken loftily about looking at Conservative MEP expenses and so forth. The reality, however, is that when every other political party within the European Parliament is so corrupted and wasteful, what good can come from it?

The Conservative Party needs to revisit Europe as an issue and consider the possibility that it won’t ever change. It needs to consider the possibility that we may indeed be better off out.

Somehow I have the feeling you are all as shocked as I am to see the return of Real Politics. Nearly two years have passed with many political happenings – all of which I’ve unfortunately missed the opportunity to blog on – but now I have finally returned.

As you can see, the layout is slightly different, and now RP is hosted by SquareSpace (similar to TypePad). I decided on this as I liked the options available, and apparently the anti-spam software is extremely reliable (unlike what I had previously with WordPress).

It may seem like a somewhat strange decision to come back now as politics in Britain goes on holiday for the summer, though at the same time I feel this offers a great chance to get back into the swing of things seeing as politics is very much alive and kicking both across the pond and the channel. Also, it gives me a chance to really go over how the Conservative Party has progressed since Cameron was elected leader (remembering that I supported Liam Fox, and then David Davis).

So expect a lot of posting over the coming months (and years).